The first quarter of 2026 began under the cooling influence of a weak La Niña, yet it still registered as the fourth-warmest start to a year on record. This baseline of warmth is now poised to accelerate. According to an analysis of five major global temperature datasets by Carbon Brief, the planet is on a trajectory to make 2026 the second-warmest year since records began, with a narrow but significant probability of it ranking even higher.
The primary driver of this shift is the projected emergence of a strong—and perhaps "super"—El Niño event by early autumn. As the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), this pattern in the tropical Pacific reshapes global weather and reliably pushes surface temperatures upward. While 2026 currently has a 19% chance of surpassing 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded, the real concern for climatologists is the momentum it creates for the following year. A sustained El Niño in late 2026 would almost certainly position 2027 to set a new historical peak.
Beyond surface temperatures, the environmental indicators of a warming system are becoming increasingly stark. Arctic sea ice reached a winter peak this year that tied with 2025 for the lowest in the satellite record. This convergence of record-low ice and rising thermal energy suggests that the brief reprieve offered by La Niña was merely a masking effect on a much deeper, more persistent trend of global heating.
With reporting from Carbon Brief.
Source · Carbon Brief
