The U.S. Space Force’s strategy for orbital access is built on a fragile duopoly, one that is currently being tested by the technical teething pains of United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan rocket. Intended to be the reliable, heavy-lift peer to SpaceX’s Falcon 9, the Vulcan is now facing its second grounding in less than two years. For the Pentagon, the issue isn't just a missed schedule; it is a question of whether its primary alternative to Elon Musk’s launch dominance is ready for the high-stakes demands of national security.
The technical culprit is a recurring anomaly with the rocket’s solid boosters. In both October 2024 and February 2025, exhaust nozzles on the boosters failed during ascent. While the Vulcan managed to reach its intended orbits despite these hardware losses, the pattern has alarmed military leadership. With a backlog of nearly 70 launches and only four flights completed since its debut in early 2024, ULA’s slow ramp-up is creating a bottleneck that threatens the Pentagon's "assured access to space" doctrine.
A three-star general signaled this week that these reliability issues will "absolutely" be a factor in the Space Force’s next major launch competition. The military has long preferred a split-buy approach to maintain industrial competition, but ULA’s inability to stabilize the Vulcan program may force a shift in how those contracts are awarded. As the Pentagon looks toward its next procurement cycle, the premium on flight-proven reliability may soon outweigh the desire for a balanced market.
With reporting from Ars Technica Space.
Source · Ars Technica Space
