The Russian economy is increasingly a machine built for a single purpose: the endurance of the war in Ukraine. According to Thomas Nilsson, head of Sweden’s Military Intelligence and Security Service (MUST), there is a distinct possibility that Vladimir Putin remains unaware of the full extent of Russia’s economic fragility. This information gap, whether accidental or curated by subordinates, allows the Kremlin to maintain a course that many Western analysts view as unsustainable.
Even if the reality of a crisis were to reach the president’s desk, experts argue it would do little to change the trajectory of the invasion. Torbjörn Becker, director of the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics, suggests that Putin is prepared to cannibalize nearly every other sector of the Russian state to keep the military operational. In this calculus, social welfare, infrastructure, and long-term development are secondary to the immediate requirements of the front line.
The resilience of the Russian war effort is not necessarily a sign of economic health, but rather a reflection of total prioritization. As the state pivots toward a permanent wartime footing, the traditional metrics of economic stability—inflation, currency value, and consumer well-being—become tertiary concerns. For Putin, the war has become the primary organizing principle of the Russian state, one that he appears willing to defend at any fiscal cost.
With reporting from Dagens Nyheter.
Source · Dagens Nyheter
